Gas forecasts project a bright future

November 26th, 2014

There’s an interesting publication that was quietly released by the Commonwealth Government’s resource economists this month showing long-term projections of Australia’s energy consumption, production and trade for the period to 2050.

The Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics publication Australian Energy Projections to 2050 reports the outputs of a comprehensive modelling exercise ( for economics and modelling fans, it’s a dynamic partial equilibrium model called E4cast – more details in Chapter 3 of the report).

Key findings in the report include:

  • Coal and gas are projected to continue to supply the bulk of Australia’s energy needs.
  • The use of conventional and unconventional gas in industries is expected to grow over the outlook period with projected falls in gas-fired generation offset by growth in the consumption of gas in LNG production
  • Gas production is expected to grow at 2.5 percent per annum to 2050, while its share in total energy production increases from 18 percent to 27 percent from the beginning to the end of the projection period
  • Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are projected to increase significantly – by 2050, exports from the western market are forecast to reach 44 million tonnes (2 838 petajoules) for an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, while growth in the northern and eastern markets stand at forecast growth of 4 and 6.7 percent respectively.

There are two tables in the report that illustrate clearly the role that gas will continue to play in the energy mix for the next 35 years.

The first shows final energy consumption, by type:

BREE_2014_consumption by energy type_1.jpg

Source: Australian Energy Projections to 2050, BREE 2014

 

The second shows energy production, by source:

BREE_production by source-1

Source: Australian Energy Projections to 2050. BREE, 2014

Looks like gas is here to stay.

 

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